Questions, probabilities, deadlines, and outcomes.
FoxCast
Forecasts built for decisions, not headlines.
FoxCast turns uncertain events into measurable questions, public probabilities, and scorecards people can inspect after outcomes resolve.
Agriculture first
Public scorecard
Latest Update
What changed most recently across forecasts, scorecards, and watchlists.
Start here
The first public lane is FoxCast Agriculture.
Farmers, co-ops, lenders, and local ag businesses can find practical questions, see current probabilities, and check how FoxCast is doing against its scorecard.
Current Product Shape
First usable public pathOpportunity Lanes
Ranked by fitAbout FoxCast
A forecasting brand built around alert judgment and changing uncertainty.
FoxCast is intentionally public about its mission and standards, while keeping the founder’s personal life out of the spotlight during the early build.
The brand story
The fox represents practical intelligence.
The fox was chosen because good forecasting requires alertness, patience, and the ability to read changing terrain. FoxCast is built for people who need clearer judgment before outcomes are obvious.
The spiral
The Cornu spiral represents uncertainty in motion.
The spiral reflects how complex systems bend as evidence changes. Forecasts should not pretend the world is static. They should make uncertainty visible, measurable, and accountable.
Mission
FoxCast exists to make forecasts useful for real decisions.
Every public forecast should have a clear question, a probability, a deadline, and a score after resolution. Agriculture is the first public lane because practical forecasting can help farmers, co-ops, lenders, and local ag businesses make sense of uncertainty.
Plain-English forecasts
Public scorecards
Free agriculture lane
What FoxCast Shares
PublicBrier-style records that show whether forecasts improve over time.
Plain-English decision context for the people each forecast may help.
What Stays Personal
PrivacyFoxCast can build credibility through public work before centering personal biography.
Family, location, and private background do not need to be part of the early public site.
A founder page can be added later if it helps trust, sales, or partnerships.
Ag Forecasts
Find forecasts by role, region, commodity, or question.
Built for quick farm and ag-business decisions: choose what matters, see the current probability, and check how FoxCast has scored over time.
Free decision support
FoxCast Agriculture helps turn uncertainty into clearer planning questions.
Farmers, co-ops, lenders, and local ag businesses face a lot of noisy headlines. FoxCast keeps forecasts practical: what might happen, when we will know, how likely it looks, and how well the system has scored over time.
Not trading advice
Public scorecard
Plain-English questions
Forecast finder
Start with your decision.
Use the same simple path farmers already know from forecast sites: place, crop or livestock area, then the question.
Choose Your Role
Start with the kind of decision you make. FoxCast will keep the question practical and scoreable.
Practical Questions
Each question now points toward a current FoxCast answer, a forecast card, a deadline, and a score after resolution.
Priority Ag Questions
These are the next practical forecast candidates FoxCast is preparing for scoreable public tracking.
Live Forecast Answers
Current FoxCast answers with probability, practical meaning, source links, and scoring rules.
Frozen Scorecard Holdouts
Older scorecard holdouts stay visible so the public record remains accountable.
Question Review Queue
Candidate questions move from review to live scoring only after their resolution rules are tight.
How Questions Become Forecasts
Submitted questions are saved privately for review, then move into the FoxCast queue during the weekly workflow.
Audience Targets
Who this helpsHow To Read A Forecast
Public guideSubmit a question
Have a risk you want FoxCast to track?
Send a measurable question with the lane, region, decision context, deadline, and what outcome would count as resolved. FoxCast will keep public forecasts accountable and easy to read.
Global Risk
Geopolitical forecasts for practical planning.
This lane will track scoreable geopolitical risks that can affect agriculture, energy, shipping, trade, governments, and supply chains.
First public bridge
Start with geopolitical risks that already touch real business decisions.
The first public example is Iran oil pass-through risk because it connects global conflict, oil prices, diesel, freight, fertilizer, and food costs.
Track events that could move fuel, freight, fertilizer, and food costs.
Translate vague headlines into deadlines, probabilities, and resolution rules.
Watch policy and logistics events that can affect supply chains.
Critical Minerals
Strategic supply-chain forecasts are being built.
FoxCast is preparing a critical minerals lane for copper, rare earths, graphite, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and policy chokepoints.
What This Lane Will Answer
BuildingWill China or another producer expand restrictions on rare earths, graphite, gallium, or germanium?
Will named processing, mining, or refining projects miss important milestones?
Will DRC, Indonesia, Chile, or other chokepoints produce measurable supply disruption?
Current Build Status
Internal firstBuilt in the wiki with Gracelin Baskaran's work tracked as a priority source.
Seeded with USGS, market proxies, policy targets, think-tank analysis, and base-rate models.
First 10 scoreable candidate questions are drafted internally before public release.
Foresight
Early signals for inventions, technologies, and production shifts.
This lane will discuss upcoming inventions and technical shifts in plain language without exposing internal source-gathering details.
Track practical breakthroughs that could affect agriculture, minerals, energy, logistics, or manufacturing.
Separate interesting claims from scoreable milestones like production, approvals, purchases, or deployment.
Connect the technology to decisions people can understand, not just technical excitement.
Scorecards
Trust comes from keeping score.
The public scorecard shows whether FoxCast forecasts are improving over time. Lower Brier scores are better, and comparisons help readers see whether FoxCast is adding value.
How to read this
Lower Brier scores mean better forecast accuracy.
A Brier score measures how close probabilities were to what actually happened. FoxCast publishes the score so readers can see whether the system is improving, not just whether a single forecast sounded persuasive.
0.25
Coin-flip level
0.16
About 60% and right
0.09
About 70% and right
0.04
About 80% and right
How FoxCast Compares
Lower score is better| Benchmark | Lane | Brier | FoxCast edge | Use |
|---|
Iteration History
What changed and whether it helpedScorecard By Lane
Current buildoutAnswered Forecast Archive
Resolved examples from the Ag scorecard, written in simple language so readers can see what FoxCast forecast, what happened, and what the result means.
Why this matters
The scorecard currently includes 65 resolved Ag cases. This archive starts with a curated public set and will keep expanding so readers can inspect the older answers behind the score.
Weekly Brief
A recurring update rhythm for FoxCast.
Each week, FoxCast reviews open forecasts, updates scorecards, prepares a plain-English summary, and keeps the public pages aligned with the latest record.
What happens weekly
The brief keeps forecasts current without turning the public site into an internal dashboard.
Public readers see clear updates and score movement. Working notes stay behind the scenes.
Open forecasts
6
Currently tracked Ag holdouts
Market Snapshot
Oil watchNews Watchlists
MonitoringWhat Gets Updated
Public-facingBehind The Scenes
InternalSlack Brief Preview
Weekly summaryWeekly Snapshot Archive
Saved locallyHow FoxCast works
Simple standards, clear forecasts, public scores.
FoxCast publishes what readers need to understand each forecast, follow the record, and judge performance after outcomes are known.
Public promise
Every public forecast should be understandable, measurable, and scoreable.
Readers should know what is being forecast, when it resolves, what probability FoxCast assigned, and how the forecast performed after the outcome is known.
We publish standards
We publish scores
We keep the public page focused and readable